MLB / mlb / live
PIT 3 / ATL 6PITPittsburgh Pirates40%
ATLAtlanta Braves60%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch Keller
Model pickATL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterMartín Pérez
PIT40%ML +122
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
ATL60%ML -146
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.0 pts
Model has ATL at 60.2%, market at 57.2% — mild comparison but not actionable. PIT's 6.9 RPG over 63 games is real offensive strength vs their .710 OPS; model may be overweighting ATL home park (0.915 suppresses runs). Pérez lacks season IP/ERA data (nulls suggest incomplete logging). Total 8.95 vs market 8.5 is close; PIT's offense argues over.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+122 / -146PIT / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total