MLB / mlb / live
TOR 3 / ATL 4TORToronto Blue Jays53%
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterBryce Elder
TOR53%ML +100
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
ATL47%ML -117
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.0 pts
Model picks TOR 53% but market has ATL -125 (54% implied). ATL is 40-20 vs TOR 29-31, and ATL's 4.9 RPG offense at home is stronger. Gausman's 1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP sample is tiny; Elder's nulls suggest data issues but ATL context wins. Extreme pitcher park (0.915) argues under vs model's 9.05.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -117TOR / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -109 / U -110
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total