MLB / mlb / live
BOS 2 / ATL 3BOSBoston Red Sox53%
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickBOS moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterSpencer Strider
BOS53%ML +128
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
ATL47%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.0 pts
Model picks BOS at 53% but market implies ATL 57.5%. ATL is 30-14 vs BOS 17-26; model offense_defense_mismatch flag confirms it backs the worse team. Strider missing season stats suggests injury/absence; Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is minuscule sample noise. Model total 9.33 vs market 8.0 in a 0.915 park factor venue—lean over given ATL's 4.3 RPG offense should exploit Early's thin track record.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152BOS / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -117
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total