MLB / mlb / live
DET 5 / ATL 2DETDetroit Tigers55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber Valdez
Model pickDET moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterBryce Elder
DET55%ML +108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
ATL45%ML -126
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.1 pts
Model favors DET at 55.2% but market has ATL at 54.8% — a rare convergence at coin-flip odds. ATL's 22-9 record and .789 OPS vs DET's .582 OPS is stark; offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model picks the worse team. Elder's missing stats are a data hole. Valdez 1.50 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample. Lean ATL on offense gap; lean over 8.5 given model 9.1 and pitcher park.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -126DET / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -109
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total