MLB / mlb / live
PHI 8 / ATL 5PHIPhiladelphia Phillies37%
ATLAtlanta Braves63%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickATL moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterBryce Elder
PHI37%ML +107
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
ATL63%ML -126
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.4 pts
Wheeler's data is fallback quality; Elder's ERA/IP are null despite 10 starts. Market implies 53.5% ATL, model says 63%. Without pitcher fundamentals, I can't justify siding with the model's 9-point comparison over Pinnacle. PHI's .570 OPS is historically bad but Wheeler could stabilize this spot.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+107 / -126PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total