MLB / mlb / live
HOU 5 / OAK 6HOUHouston Astros55%
OAKOakland Athletics45%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterHunter BrownConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
OAKHome starterJacob LopezConfirmed
HOU55%ML -192
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
OAK45%ML +160
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 bovada / U +102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 betonlineag / U -125 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-192 / +160HOU / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -102 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total