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scheduled
HOUHouston Astros46%
OAKOakland Athletics54%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterPeter LambertProbable
Model pickOAK moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
OAKHome starterMason BarnettProbable
HOU46%ML -165
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
OAK54%ML +139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.3 pts

Model's 54.5% on OAK vs market's 40.3% is a 14-point gap I can't justify: Barnett carries a 7.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over 44 IP against Lambert's 3.70/1.23 in 151 IP, and Houston is 15 games better in the standings. Sutter Health Park (PF 1.104) inflates the total, but Houston's 3.7 RPG caps the ceiling, so 10.5 is a reach.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K4.8
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.552%
O 5.535%
O 6.522%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Mason BarnettOAK starter / home
Projected K3.7
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -125 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.571%
O 3.551%
O 4.532%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-165 / +139HOU / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-111)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -115 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total