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scheduled
LAALos Angeles Angels47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterWalbert UreñaProbable
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
OAKHome starterJeffrey SpringsProbable
LAA47%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
OAK53%ML +112

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts

Model has OAK at 52.6% vs market's 45.2%, and the starter gap argues against it: Ureña at 2.74 ERA/1.21 WHIP over 144.1 IP versus Springs at 6.18 ERA/1.47 WHIP. LAA's .860 OPS against OAK's .512 compounds the comparison. On the total, Sutter Health Park (PF 1.104) and Springs push up while Ureña against a .512 OPS pushes down; no clear side at 9.5.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K5.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.575%
O 4.558%
O 5.541%
O 6.527%
O 7.516%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-132 / +112LAA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -107 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total