sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TEX 2 / OAK 5
TEXTexas Rangers53%
OAKOakland Athletics47%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCody BradfordConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
OAKHome starterJacob LopezConfirmed
TEX53%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
OAK47%ML +114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts

Model's 52.8% on TEX sits below the market's ~55.7%, so no comparison to exploit; TEX is the better club by record but scores only 3.4 RPG. Bradford's 2.38 ERA over just 11.3 IP across 10 starts is unusable sample, which caps conviction. Model total 8.82 vs market 10.0 favors under, though Sutter Health Park's 1.104 factor and Lopez's 1.56 WHIP argue against pressing it.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cody BradfordTEX starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betonlineag / U -143 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +120 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +114TEX / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total