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TEX 5 / OAK 3
TEXTexas Rangers47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
OAKHome starterJ.T. GinnConfirmed
TEX47%ML -166
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
OAK53%ML +140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

Model has OAK at 52.9% versus a market implying 45%, and the supporting offensive inputs are internally inconsistent (OAK listed at 4.5 RPG with a .512 OPS, TEX at 3.4 RPG with a .698 OPS). With TEX at 60-63 versus 48-74 and Gore's 10.0 K/9 offsetting Ginn's 3.41 ERA, I side lightly with the market. Sutter Health Park at 1.104 supports runs, but a 9.5 line already prices that in, so no total view.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +124 fanduel / U -143 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -107 betrivers / U -107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-166 / +140TEX / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -122
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total