MLB / mlb / live
TBR 10 / OAK 6TBRTampa Bay Rays53%
OAKOakland Athletics47%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
OAKHome starterJacob LopezConfirmed
TBR53%ML -159
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
OAK47%ML +135
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 draftkings / U -127 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-159 / +135TBR / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -108 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total