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TBR 12 / OAK 4
TBRTampa Bay Rays47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
OAKHome starterMason BarnettConfirmed
TBR47%ML -195
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
OAK53%ML +165

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.7 pts

Model's 53.3% on TBR looks too tepid versus the market's ~61% implied; the gap in profiles is large (TBR 71-46, .802 OPS vs OAK 47-71, .512 OPS and 3.4 RPG) and Martinez's 2.65 ERA over 129 IP outclasses Barnett's 5.56 in 34 IP. Siding with market and model on TBR, no independent comparison. Park factor 1.104 supports scoring, but OAK's offense caps it; 10.0 is a high line, slight under.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 bovada / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Mason BarnettOAK starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 bovada / U -130 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-195 / +165TBR / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -104 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total