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DET 11 / OAK 0
DETDetroit Tigers51%
OAKOakland Athletics49%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
OAKHome starterGage JumpConfirmed
DET51%ML -125
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
OAK49%ML +106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts

Model has DET at 50.8%, market implies 51.6% — essentially a coin flip. DET's 6.6 RPG vs OAK's 3.4 RPG is stark. Model total of 9.32 runs is 1.68 under market's 11.0 in a hitter park (PF 1.104); this gap signals structural disagreement. Montero's 3.34 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 110 IP are credible. Lean DET side on offense gap, lean under with model vs inflated market total.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 betmgm / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -106 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +106DET / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total