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scheduled
DETDetroit Tigers51%
OAKOakland Athletics49%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterKeider MonteroProbable
Model pickDET moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
OAKHome starterGage JumpProbable
DET51%ML -115
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
OAK49%ML -104

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.4 pts

Model has DET at 50.8%, market implies 51.6% — essentially a coin flip. DET's 6.6 RPG vs OAK's 3.4 RPG is stark. Model total of 9.32 runs is 1.68 under market's 11.0 in a hitter park (PF 1.104); this gap signals structural disagreement. Montero's 3.34 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 110 IP are credible. Lean DET side on offense gap, lean under with model vs inflated market total.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.572%
O 3.552%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.510%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.562%
O 5.545%
O 6.530%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-115 / -104DET / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total