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DET 8 / OAK 6
DETDetroit Tigers55%
OAKOakland Athletics45%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
OAKHome starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
DET55%ML -188
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
OAK45%ML +158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts

Model has DET at 55.2%, market at 59.2% (implied from -145). Modest disagreement favors market. Perkins 6.45 ERA vs Valdez 4.53 ERA supports DET, but model total 9.32 vs market 10.5 is a 1.2-run gap. Park factor 1.104 pushes runs up, yet both totals suggest scoring. Lean DET side with market, lean under given model-market divergence on total.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-188 / +158DET / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -108 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total