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BOS 4 / OAK 2
BOSBoston Red Sox55%
OAKOakland Athletics45%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
OAKHome starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
BOS55%ML -192
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
OAK45%ML +160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Model (55.2%) and market (61.6% BOS) both favor Boston but market is more confident. BOS offense (.736 OPS, 5.3 RPG) significantly stronger than OAK (.512 OPS, 4.7 RPG). Tolle's 3.31 ERA in 90 IP is legit vs Perkins' 6.75 ERA. Model total 8.97 sits 1.5 under market 9.5 in extreme hitter park (PF 1.104), suggesting totals lean under despite venue.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total10.1
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 betrivers / U -102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-192 / +160BOS / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total