sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

WSN 5 / OAK 2
WSNWashington Nationals52%
OAKOakland Athletics48%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline52%Model 20260713_auto
OAKHome starterJacob LopezConfirmed
WSN52%ML -150
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
OAK48%ML +128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

WSN's Griffin (2.77 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 110 IP) is a legitimate pitcher facing OAK's league-worst offense (3.5 RPG, .512 OPS). Model at 52.2% vs market 56.8% on WSN underweights this mismatch. Lopez's 6.83 ERA is exploitable but extreme park (PF 1.104) inflates model total to 9.08; prefer under the 10.5 market line given Griffin's control.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Foster GriffinWSN starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.580%under
O 4.566%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -124 draftkings / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-150 / +128WSN / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total