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WSN 1 / OAK 15
WSNWashington Nationals55%
OAKOakland Athletics45%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterZack LittellProbable
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260713_auto
OAKHome starterJ.T. GinnProbable
WSN55%ML -110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
OAK45%ML -108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts

Model favors WSN at 54.9% but market has OAK at 53.3%—a small disagreement flag fires but the gap is actually modest. WSN's 6.9 RPG vs OAK's 2.5 RPG is a massive offensive comparison. However, Ginn's 3.67 ERA in 103 IP is solid while Littell's 4.9 ERA is exploitable. Hitter park pushes total up but model 10.31 vs market 11.0 suggests under lean.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack LittellWSN starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -120 bovada / U +110 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 2.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.552%over
O 3.531%over
O 4.515%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 fanatics / U -146 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -108WSN / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total