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MIA 9 / OAK 8
MIAMiami Marlins47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterEury PérezConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
OAKHome starterGage JumpConfirmed
MIA47%ML +100
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
OAK53%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.9 pts

Model picks OAK 53% but MIA is better offensively (6.3 RPG vs 4.2, .774 OPS vs .512) and has better record (47-42 vs 41-47). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires correctly. Model total 8.43 vs market 10.0 is a 1.6-run gap; lean under with model. Hitter park (1.104 PF) argues for higher scoring but both pitchers sub-4.50 ERA support under the inflated market line.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 betmgm / U +117 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%over
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -139 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -120MIA / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.3 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total