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MIA 12 / OAK 5
MIAMiami Marlins47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
OAKHome starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
MIA47%ML +120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
OAK53%ML -143

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.2 pts

Model picks OAK at 53.2%, market has them at 53.1% — essentially dead even. Phillips (3.02 ERA, 65.7 IP) is significantly better than Perkins (6.00 ERA, 51 IP). MIA offense leads 5.2 RPG vs 4.4, .774 OPS vs .512. Park factor 1.104 argues over; market total 10.5 vs model 9.36 suggests model underweighting venue. Lean MIA on pitching comparison.

extreme parkoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -148 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 draftkings / U -141 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -143MIA / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total