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LAD 1 / OAK 7
LADLos Angeles Dodgers47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterStarter TBD
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
OAKHome starterStarter TBD
LAD47%ML -164
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
OAK53%ML +137

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.7 pts

Model has OAK 53% but market implies LAD 61%; LAD is 55-30 vs OAK 40-45 with 5.6 RPG vs 4.6. Away pitcher is fallback (TBD/team avg 4.84 ERA) making total unreliable. Ginn's 3.15 ERA in 88.7 IP is legit. Model picking worse team AND worse offense is classic structural miss. Lean LAD, lean under vs 10.0 market line given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betmgm / U -137 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-164 / +137LAD / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -106 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total