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LAD 9 / OAK 4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterEric LauerConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
OAKHome starterGage JumpConfirmed
LAD47%ML -119
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
OAK53%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.3 pts

Model predicts 7.86 runs in a 1.104 park factor venue while market sets 10.5—a 2.6-run gap flags structural miss. Jump's 2.04 ERA over 35 IP is elite but small sample; Lauer's 4.87 ERA is pedestrian. Market leans LAD slightly (-108), model leans OAK (53%). I side with LAD on talent but lack conviction given model's park-adjusted total seems more credible than market's inflated line.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.7
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eric LauerLAD starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -165 fanatics / U +138 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-119 / +100LAD / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total