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PIT 6 / OAK 5
PITPittsburgh Pirates51%
OAKOakland Athletics49%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterMitch KellerProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
OAKHome starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
PIT51%ML +120
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
OAK49%ML -145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.6 pts

Model has PIT 51%, market has OAK 56% — I side with market. OAK's 6.6 RPG vs PIT's 3.6 RPG offense is stark despite similar records. Perkins' 6.25 ERA in 36 IP is concerning but Keller's 5.14 in 77 IP isn't sharp either. Model total 9.24 is 1.76 runs under market 11.0 in a hitter park (PF 1.104); model likely overfit on recent pitching. Lean OAK, lean under market total.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +131 draftkings / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -145PIT / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -105 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total