MLB / mlb / live
PIT 12 / OAK 4PITPittsburgh Pirates51%
OAKOakland Athletics49%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBraxton AshcraftProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
OAKHome starterAaron CivaleConfirmed
PIT51%ML -137
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
OAK49%ML +115
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.5
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Aaron CivaleOAK starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-137 / +115PIT / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-129)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -102 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total