MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / OAK 4MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Las Vegas Ballpark
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJack Perkins
MIL42%ML -109
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
OAK58%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.0 pts
Model has OAK at 58% but market is dead even at 50%. MIL is 41-24 scoring 8.3 RPG with .972 OPS vs OAK 32-35 at 5.6 RPG with .512 OPS. Perkins 6.19 ERA faces elite offense. Model predicts 8.72 runs, market at 14.5—model drastically underweighting MIL's offensive firepower. Take MIL and over.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total14.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-109 / -110MIL / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context14.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML22 run line21 total