MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / OAK 6NYYNew York Yankees46%
OAKOakland Athletics54%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterRyan Weathers
Model pickOAK moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJ.T. Ginn
NYY46%ML -155
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
OAK54%ML +130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap11.8 pts
Model picks OAK 53.5% vs market's 41.5%—12-point gap. Weathers has no resolved IP/ERA/K9 stats; Ginn's 3.2 IP sample is tiny. Both pitcher inputs are unreliable. NYY's superior offense (5.1 RPG vs 3.7, .692 OPS vs .512) and 13-game record comparison justify market fade. Park runs hot (1.104) but total call requires real pitcher data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-155 / +130NYY / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total