MLB / mlb / live
NYY 8 / OAK 2NYYNew York Yankees46%
OAKOakland Athletics54%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickOAK moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterLuis Severino
NYY46%ML -143
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
OAK54%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap10.0 pts
Model has OAK at 53.5% vs market 42%, an 11.5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. NYY has far superior offense (4.9 RPG, .692 OPS vs 3.6/.512) and better record (34-22 vs 27-29). Rodón stats are null, creating uncertainty. Extreme park (PF 1.104) pushes total toward over vs 9.5 line. Market is likely correct on NYY, lean away from model's OAK pick.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-143 / +120NYY / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -109 / U -112
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total