MLB / mlb / live
SEA 9 / OAK 1SEASeattle Mariners42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJeffrey Springs
SEA42%ML -120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
OAK58%ML +102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.2 pts
Model has OAK at 58% but market implies SEA 54%. The 12-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large but neither pitcher profile is compelling—Springs 5.1 IP sample is tiny, Gilbert's 5.06 ERA with elite K/9 suggests bad luck. Extreme park (+1.104) pushes total up but model 8.88 vs market 9.0 is tight. Defer to market on SEA side, pass on total in hitter park with uncertain pitcher forms.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +102SEA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total