MLB / mlb / live
SEA 9 / OAK 1SEASeattle Mariners42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJeffrey Springs
SEA42%ML -120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
OAK58%ML +102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model has OAK at 58% but market implies SEA 54%. The 12-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large but neither pitcher profile is compelling—Springs 5.1 IP sample is tiny, Gilbert's 5.06 ERA with elite K/9 suggests bad luck. Extreme park (+1.104) pushes total up but model 8.88 vs market 9.0 is tight. Defer to market on SEA side, pass on total in hitter park with uncertain pitcher forms.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +102SEA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total