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scheduled
NYYNew York Yankees44%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks56%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterWill WarrenProbable
Model pickARI moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterCorbin BurnesProbable
NYY44%ML -113
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
ARI56%ML -106

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Corbin BurnesARI starter / home
Projected K5.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.546%
O 6.531%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-113 / -106NYY / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total