MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / ARI 8NYYNew York Yankees57%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks43%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterCorbin BurnesConfirmed
NYY57%ML +104
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
ARI43%ML -122
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betonlineag / U -132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Corbin BurnesARI starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%under
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+104 / -122NYY / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total