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NYY 3 / ARI 5
NYYNew York Yankees54%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
NYY54%ML -164
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ARI46%ML +138

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.3 pts

Model has NYY at only 53.9% while the market implies ~58%; here the market looks right. Schlittler (1.95 ERA, 11.11 K/9, 0.90 WHIP) is a clear step up on Pfaadt (3.77, 6.1 K/9), and NYY's 6.0 RPG/.692 OPS dwarfs Arizona's .564 OPS. Model's 8.84 total sits well above the 7.5 line despite a modest 1.036 park factor and Schlittler's strikeout profile, so I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 bovada / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-164 / +138NYY / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +101 / U -122
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total