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MIA 4 / ARI 2
MIAMiami Marlins39%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks61%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterJanson JunkProbable
Model pickARI moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterMichael SorokaConfirmed
MIA39%ML +133
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
ARI61%ML -158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Soroka's 3.53 ERA/1.16 WHIP over Junk's 4.54/1.32 plus home field justifies ARI, but Miami's offense is clearly better (5.8 RPG, .774 OPS vs 4.5 and .564), so I won't go past a lean on a model comparison of only ~3.6 points over the market's 57.8%. Chase Field at 1.036 PF with Junk's 6.0 K/9 nudges me to the over on 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -125 bovada / U +105 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 2.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%over
O 2.548%over
O 3.527%over
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael SorokaARI starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 betonlineag / U -164 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+133 / -158MIA / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total