MLB / mlb / live
MIA 4 / ARI 3MIAMiami Marlins44%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks56%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterRyan GustoConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
MIA44%ML +117
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
ARI56%ML -138
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -152 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+117 / -138MIA / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total