sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIA 7 / ARI 8
MIAMiami Marlins42%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks58%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterCorbin BurnesConfirmed
MIA42%ML +114
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
ARI58%ML -134

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.5 pts

Burnes shows 10 starts but only 3.0 IP logged, so his 0.00 ERA carries no weight and his workload is likely limited. Miami's .774 OPS and 5.4 RPG dwarf Arizona's .564 OPS and 3.8 RPG, with Alcantara (3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 200 IP) the more reliable starter. Slight lean to the +118 side. Model's 9.63 total sits 1.6 runs above the market 8.0; Arizona's offense doesn't support that, so under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 bovada / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.517%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Corbin BurnesARI starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -134MIA / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total