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TEX 1 / ARI 9
TEXTexas Rangers54%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
TEX54%ML -104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ARI46%ML -115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats, so the projected 6.22 vs 3.80 ERA split carries little weight. Model sides with TEX at 54.1% while the market prices ARI at -125 (54.2% implied) despite ARI's better 78-69 record; I defer to the market on the side. ARI's listed 2.5 RPG / .564 OPS looks inconsistent with that record, another reason to distrust the inputs and pass on the total.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +127 draftkings / U -150 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -166 fanduel / U +130 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -115TEX / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -122 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total