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PHI 0 / ARI 1
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies39%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks61%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline61%Model 20260831_auto
ARIHome starterTaylor ClarkeConfirmed
PHI39%ML -131
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
ARI61%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.1 pts

Model's 60.9% on ARI vs market 47.8% is a 13-point gap; that usually favors the market. But Clarke (2.60 ERA, 0.88 WHIP in 62.1 IP) vs Painter (5.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) is a real pitching comparison that supports a small ARI lean at plus money. PHI's 5.0 RPG vs ARI's 3.4 is the offense mismatch flag. Slight under on 9.0.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +125 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Taylor ClarkeARI starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-131 / +110PHI / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total