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PHI 7 / ARI 1
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies51%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks49%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline51%Model 20260831_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
PHI51%ML -131
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ARI49%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

Phillies bring the better record (78-60) and much better scoring (5.0 RPG vs 3.8), plus Luzardo's 11.21 K/9. Market at -128 is more confident than the model's 51.3%; I side with the market here. Both starters under 3.50 ERA argues under the 7.5, though Chase Field (PF 1.036) tempers that slightly. Model's 8.93 total looks too high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 draftkings / U +108 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +133 betrivers / U -150 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-131 / +110PHI / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total