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PHI 2 / ARI 1
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtProbable
PHI40%ML -112
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
ARI60%ML -105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts

Model has ARI at 57.6% vs market's 47.7% implied — a ~10pt gap built on a fallback profile for a TBD Arizona starter, so the 5.08 ERA/1.48 WHIP line may not reflect who actually pitches. PHI has the better record (77-60) and 5.2 RPG vs 4.6. Slight lean to Philadelphia; no total view without a real home starter.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 draftkings / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -117 betrivers / U +105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -105PHI / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -103 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total