sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CIN 0 / ARI 9
CINCincinnati Reds46%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterNick LodoloConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
CIN46%ML +132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ARI54%ML -152

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.0 pts

Market's -143 on ARI (57.7%) looks better calibrated than the model's 53.7%; Rodriguez at 2.71 ERA over 149.3 IP is the clear comparison over Lodolo's 4.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The model's 9.57-run total is 1.5+ above the market 8.0 despite Cincinnati averaging just 3.6 runs per game and a near-neutral Chase Field factor of 1.036. Lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -150 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+132 / -152CIN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total