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LAD 3 / ARI 4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks42%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterRoki SasakiConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
LAD58%ML -179
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
ARI42%ML +150

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.8 pts

Model lands on LAD at 57.6% while the market prices them near 64% at -175, so there's no value on the favorite even if the side is right. Sasaki's 9.18 K/9 and 1.30 WHIP outclass Kelly's 5.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Two shaky starters in Chase Field (PF 1.036) with a 9.0 line supports a modest over lean; note ARI's 4.9 RPG against a .564 OPS is an internally odd pairing.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 fanduel / U +123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanatics / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-179 / +150LAD / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total