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SDP 4 / ARI 10
SDPSan Diego Padres47%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterMitch BrattConfirmed
SDP47%ML -139
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
ARI53%ML +119

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts

Model has ARI at 53% against a market implying 46.7%, and the starter gap argues the other way: Mize owns a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 86.2 IP versus Bratt's 5.23 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in only 20.2 IP. Taking San Diego at a near-pick price. Bratt's baserunner rate in a 1.036 park nudges the total slightly over 9.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 betonlineag / U -128 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +133 draftkings / U -158 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.56%over
O 7.53%over
O 8.51%over
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +119SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -106
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total