sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks42%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterWalker BuehlerProbable
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterKohl DrakeProbable
SDP58%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
ARI42%ML -106

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.1 pts

Model takes SDP despite worse record (59-56 vs 61-54) and lower RPG (4.9 vs 5.5) and OPS (.547 vs .564) — the mismatch flag argues against it. Market is essentially pick'em at -103, so I'll take the home side with the better offense at Chase Field (PF 1.036). Buehler's 5.18 ERA over 104 IP and Drake's 1.46 WHIP support a modest over on 9.0.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K3.7
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U +112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.571%
O 3.551%
O 4.532%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kohl DrakeARI starter / home
Projected K4.2
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -106SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total