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OAK 5 / ARI 2
OAKOakland Athletics41%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks59%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
ARIHome starterMitch BrattConfirmed
OAK41%ML +122
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
ARI59%ML -146

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.3 pts

Bratt has 6.0 IP across 2 starts (3 IP/start avg) — this is effectively a bullpen game. Springs' 6.08 ERA in 97.7 IP is established poor form, not small sample. Model's 10.79 total vs market 9.0 is a 1.79-run gap flagged correctly. Without knowing Bratt's usage plan, can't lean into the over despite Springs' struggles.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 draftkings / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betmgm / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+122 / -146OAK / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total