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STL 3 / ARI 5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals49%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks51%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterDustin MayConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline51%Model 20260713_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
STL49%ML +100
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ARI51%ML -118

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dustin MaySTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betmgm / U -162 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 fanatics / U -102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -118STL / ARI moneyline
Run line context-0.3 (0)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total