MLB / mlb / live
STL 5 / ARI 4STLSt. Louis Cardinals49%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks51%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline51%Model 20260713_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
STL49%ML -104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ARI51%ML -115
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -154 draftkings / U +126 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 2.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -113 fanduel / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-104 / -115STL / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-171)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total