MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / ARI 4MILMilwaukee Brewers53%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon WoodruffProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
MIL53%ML -163
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
ARI47%ML +136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon WoodruffMIL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -116 draftkings / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-163 / +136MIL / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total