MLB / mlb / live
SFG 6 / ARI 4SFGSan Francisco Giants47%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTrevor McDonaldConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
ARIHome starterZac GallenConfirmed
SFG47%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
ARI53%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zac GallenARI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 betrivers / U -109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -109 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total