MLB / mlb / live
SFG 4 / ARI 5SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
SFG56%ML +114
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
ARI44%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.2 pts
Model leans SFG 55.8% vs market 44.6%, but ARI offense is weak (.564 OPS) and Rodriguez (2.27 ERA, 95 IP) is the ace. Mahle's 5.49 ERA is vulnerable. Market total 9.0 vs model 8.03; lean under given Rodriguez's form.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.7
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanduel / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -136SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total