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SFG 2 / ARI 8
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLanden RouppConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
SFG54%ML -104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
ARI46%ML -114

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.7 pts

Home pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (5.84 ERA, 1.53 WHIP over 81.7 IP). Model picks SFG at 56% but market is dead even at -105/-105. Structural uncertainty on ARI side makes moneyline unpickable. Total: model 7.84 vs market 9.0 is a 1.16 run gap favoring under, and Roupp's 9.9 K/9 supports it despite hitter park.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.7
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 betonlineag / U +102 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -158 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -114SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total