MLB / mlb / live
MIN 4 / ARI 2MINMinnesota Twins45%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterMike ParedesConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
ARIHome starterJose CabreraConfirmed
MIN45%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
ARI55%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mike ParedesMIN starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -143 betonlineag / U +117 draftkings2 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.558%under
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Jose CabreraARI starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -134MIN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+149)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total