MLB / mlb / live
LAA 7 / ARI 0LAALos Angeles Angels51%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks49%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid DetmersConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
LAA51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
ARI49%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -148 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -108LAA / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total