Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

LAA 1 / ARI 8
LAALos Angeles Angels45%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterSam AldegheriConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
LAA45%ML +150
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
ARI55%ML -179

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Sam AldegheriLAA starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+150 / -179LAA / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total